The interactive effects of environmental gradient and dispersal shape spatial phylogenetic patterns

IntroductionThe emergence and maintenance of biodiversity include interacting environmental conditions, organismal adaptation to such conditions, and dispersal. To understand and quantify such ecological, evolutionary, and spatial processes, observation and interpretation of phylogenetic relatedness across space (e.g., phylogenetic beta diversity) is arguably a way forward as such patterns contain signals from all the processes listed above. However, it remains challenging to extract information about complex eco-evolutionary and spatial processes from phylogenetic patterns.MethodsWe link environmental gradients and organismal dispersal with phylogenetic beta diversity using a trait-based and eco-evolutionary model of diversification along environmental gradients. The combined effect of the environment and dispersal leads to distinct phylogenetic patterns between subsets of species and across geographical distances.Results and discussionSteep environmental gradients combined with low dispersal lead to asymmetric phylogenies, a high phylogenetic beta diversity, and the phylogenetic diversity between communities increases linearly along the environmental gradient. High dispersal combined with a less steep environmental gradient leads to symmetric phylogenies, low phylogenetic beta diversity, and the phylogenetic diversity between communities along the gradient increases in a sigmoidal form. By disentangling the eco-evolutionary mechanisms that link such interacting environment and dispersal effects and community phylogenetic patterns, our results improve understanding of biodiversity in general and help interpretation of observed phylogenetic beta diversity

Consequences of fluctuating group size for the evolution of cooperation

Studies of cooperation have traditionally focused on discrete games such as the well-known prisoner's dilemma, in which players choose between two pure strategies: cooperation and defection. Increasingly, however, cooperation is being studied in continuous games that feature a continuum of strategies determining the level of cooperative investment. For the continuous snowdrift game, it has been shown that a gradually evolving monomorphic population may undergo evolutionary branching, resulting in the emergence of a defector strategy that coexists with a cooperator strategy. This phenomenon has been dubbed the 'tragedy of the commune'. Here we study the effects of fluctuating group size on the tragedy of the commune and derive analytical conditions for evolutionary branching. Our results show that the effects of fluctuating group size on evolutionary dynamics critically depend on the structure of payoff functions. For games with additively separable benefits and costs, fluctuations in group size make evolutionary branching less likely, and sufficiently large fluctuations in group size can always turn an evolutionary branching point into a locally evolutionarily stable strategy. For games with multiplicatively separable benefits and costs, fluctuations in group size can either prevent or induce the tragedy of the commune. For games with general interactions between benefits and costs, we derive a general classification scheme based on second derivatives of the payoff function, to elucidate when fluctuations in group size help or hinder cooperation.Comment: 22 pages, 5 figure

Fruit harvesting: A potential threat to the persistence, spatial distribution, and establishment of plants

Plant-frugivore interactions play a central role for plant persistence and spatial distribution by promoting the long-range dispersal of seeds by frugivores. However, plant-frugivore interactions are increasingly being threatened by anthropogenic activities. An important anthropogenic threat that could expose plant-frugivore systems to extinction risk is fruit harvesting. Here, we develop an individual-based and a pair-approximation model of plant-frugivore-human interactions to elucidate the effects of human harvesting of fruits on plant establishment, persistence, and spatial distribution. Our results show that frugivores strongly affect global density of plants and gradually shift their spatial distribution from aggregated to random, depending on the attack rate and dispersal efficiency of frugivores. We find that, in the absence of frugivores, plants experiencing intense fruit harvesting cannot persist even if their fecundity is high. In the presence of frugivores, fruit harvesting profoundly affects the global dispersal of seeds and thus changes the spatial distributions of plants from random to aggregated, potentially causing plant extinction. Our results demonstrate that sufficiently efficient frugivores mitigate the negative impact of fruit harvesting on plant populations and enable plant establishment precluded by harvesting. Taken together, these results draw attention to previously underappreciated impacts of fruit harvesting in plant-frugivore-human interactions

Modelling animal populations

This thesis consists of four papers, three papers about modelling animal populations and one paper about an area integral estimate for solutions of partial differential equations on non-smooth domains. The papers are: I. Å. Brännström, Single species population models from first principles. II. Å. Brännström and D. J. T. Sumpter, Stochastic analogues of deterministic single species population models. III. Å. Brännström and D. J. T. Sumpter, Coupled map lattice approximations for spatially explicit individual-based models of ecology. IV. Å. Brännström, An area integral estimate for higher order parabolic equations. In the first paper we derive deterministic discrete single species population models with first order feedback, such as the Hassell and Beverton-Holt model, from first principles. The derivations build on the site based method of Sumpter & Broomhead (2001) and Johansson & Sumpter (2003). A three parameter generalisation of the Beverton-Holtmodel is also derived, and one of the parameters is shown to correspond directly to the underlying distribution of individuals. The second paper is about constructing stochastic population models that incorporate a given deterministic skeleton. Using the Ricker model as an example, we construct several stochastic analogues and fit them to data using the method of maximum likelihood. The results show that an accurate stochastic population model is most important when the dynamics are periodic or chaotic, and that the two most common ways of constructing stochastic analogues, using additive normally distributed noise or multiplicative lognormally distributed noise, give models that fit the data well. The latter is also motivated on theoretical grounds. In the third paper we approximate a spatially explicit individual-based model with a stochastic coupledmap lattice. The approximation effectively disentangles the deterministic and stochastic components of the model. Based on this approximation we argue that the stable population dynamics seen for short dispersal ranges is a consequence of increased stochasticity from local interactions and dispersal. Finally, the fourth paper contains a proof that for solutions of higher order real homogeneous constant coefficient parabolic operators on Lipschitz cylinders, the area integral dominates the maximal function in the L2-norm

A tree’s quest for light—optimal height and diameter growth under a shading canopy

For trees in forests, striving for light is matter of life and death, either by growing taller toward brighter conditions or by expanding the crown to capture more of the available light. Here, we present a mechanistic model for the development path of stem height and crown size, accounting for light capture and growth, as well as mortality risk. We determine the optimal growth path among all possible trajectories using dynamic programming. The optimal growth path follows a sequence of distinct phases: (i) initial crown size expansion, (ii) stem height growth toward the canopy, (iii) final expansion of the crown in the canopy and (iv) seed production without further increase in size. The transition points between these phases can be optimized by maximizing fitness, defined as expected lifetime reproductive production. The results imply that to reach the canopy in an optimal way, trees must consider the full profile of expected increasing light levels toward the canopy. A shortsighted maximization of growth based on initial light conditions can result in arrested height growth, preventing the tree from reaching the canopy. The previous result can explain canopy stratification, and why canopy species often get stuck at a certain size under a shading canopy. The model explains why trees with lower wood density have a larger diameter at a given tree height and grow taller than trees with higher wood density. The model can be used to implement plasticity in height versus diameter growth in individual-based vegetation and forestry models.Originally included in thesis in manuscript form.</p

Arbetslöshet som en icke önskvärd konsekvens av socialbidrag : Resultat från en tidsserieanalys på befolkningsnivå i Sverige 1946–1990

Unemployment as an unintended consequence of social assistance recipiency: results from a time-series analysis of aggregated population data Does the frequency of unemployment have a tendency to increase the number of social assistance recipients, or does the relationship work the other way around? This article utilizes Swedish annual data on aggregated unemployment and means-tested social assistance recipiency in the period 1946–1990 and proposes a multiple time-series approach based on vector error-correction modelling to establish the direction of influence. First, we show that rates of unemployment and receipt of social assistance is co-integrated. Second, we demonstrate that adjustments to the long-run equilibrium are made through adjustments of the unemployment. This indicates that the level of unemployment reacts to changes in rates of social assistance recipiency rather than vice versa. It is also shown that lagged changes in the level of unemployment do not predict changes in rates of social assistance recipients in short-term. Together these findings demonstrate that the number of social assistance recipients does increase the number of unemployed in a period characterized by low unemployment and high employment.Sociologisk Forsknings digitala arkiv</p

Arbetslöshet som en icke önskvärd konsekvens av socialbidrag : Resultat från en tidsserieanalys på befolkningsnivå i Sverige 1946–1990

Unemployment as an unintended consequence of social assistance recipiency: results from a time-series analysis of aggregated population data Does the frequency of unemployment have a tendency to increase the number of social assistance recipients, or does the relationship work the other way around? This article utilizes Swedish annual data on aggregated unemployment and means-tested social assistance recipiency in the period 1946–1990 and proposes a multiple time-series approach based on vector error-correction modelling to establish the direction of influence. First, we show that rates of unemployment and receipt of social assistance is co-integrated. Second, we demonstrate that adjustments to the long-run equilibrium are made through adjustments of the unemployment. This indicates that the level of unemployment reacts to changes in rates of social assistance recipiency rather than vice versa. It is also shown that lagged changes in the level of unemployment do not predict changes in rates of social assistance recipients in short-term. Together these findings demonstrate that the number of social assistance recipients does increase the number of unemployed in a period characterized by low unemployment and high employment.Sociologisk Forsknings digitala arkiv</p

Effects of Relatedness on the Evolution of Cooperation in Nonlinear Public Goods Games

Evolution of cooperation has traditionally been studied by assuming that individuals adopt either of two pure strategies, to cooperate or defect. Recent work has considered continuous cooperative investments, turning full cooperation and full defection into two opposing ends of a spectrum and sometimes allowing for the emergence of the traditionally-studied pure strategies through evolutionary diversification. These studies have typically assumed a well-mixed population in which individuals are encountered with equal probability. Here, we allow for the possibility of assortative interactions by assuming that, with specified probabilities, an individual interacts with one or more other individuals of the same strategy. A closely related assumption has previously been made in evolutionary game theory and has been interpreted in terms of relatedness. We systematically study the effect of relatedness and find, among other conclusions, that the scope for evolutionary branching is reduced by either higher average degree of, or higher uncertainty in, relatedness with interaction partners. We also determine how different types of non-linear dependencies of benefits and costs constrain the types of evolutionary outcomes that can occur. While our results overall corroborate the conclusions of earlier studies, i.e. higher relatedness promotes the evolution of cooperation, our investigation gives a comprehensive picture of how relatedness affects the evolution of cooperation with continuous investments